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1994-05-02
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<text>
<title>
Drought Destroys Hope for Recovery
</title>
<article>
<hdr>
Foreign Broadcast Information Service, March 18, 1992
South Africa: Drought Crisis Continues; Claiming Victims.
Economists: Drought Destroys Hope for Recovery
</hdr>
<body>
<p>[Cape Town THE ARGUS in English 20 Feb 92 p 18]
</p>
<p> [Text] Johannesburg--Hopes of economic recovery this year
have been dealt a severe blow by the drought.
</p>
<p> Central Statistical Service (CSS) said that Gross Domestic
Product (GDP) fell by 0.6 percent last year after an 0.5
percent drop in 1990.
</p>
<p> Economists had generally expected growth would recover to a
positive 1.5 percent in 1992, but they are now scaling down
their forecasts in the wake of the drought.
</p>
<p> Econometrix analyst Dr. Azar Jammine estimates that the loss
of agricultural production will be R[rands]2 billion to R4
billion.
</p>
<p> While the contribution of agricultural production to GDP is
no more than five percent, such a loss implies a decline in the
projected economic growth rate this year of 0.5 percent to one
percent, Dr. Jammine says.
</p>
<p> He now expects overall DP [domestic product] to record a
mere 0.5 percent growth.
</p>
<p> The most immediate impact is that the country will have to
import up to four million tons of maize, resulting in a foreign
exchange loss of R1 billion to R2 billion.
</p>
<p> However, given the record trade surplus of R18 billion last
year and renewed access to foreign capital markets, the loss
does not represent a significant blow to the build-up in gold
and foreign exchange reserves.
</p>
<p> More significantly, Dr. Jammine says, the drought means that
certain food prices may rise as a result of the shortage.
</p>
<p> Agricultural production fell by 1.3 percent last year,
despite slight increases on a quarterly basis, according to CSS.
</p>
<p> The majority of business and financial sectors showed a drop
in output over the year.
</p>
<p> The list was headed by construction, where output plunged
4.5 percent. This was followed by manufacturing (-2.4 percent),
transport (-1.5 percent), mining (-1.5 percent) and commerce
(-0.6 percent).
</p>
<p> On a quarterly basis, GDP growth fell by 0.6 percent in the
fourth quarter of 1991.
</p>
<p> In the third quarter GDP rose by 0.5 percent, but this was
preceded by seven quarters of negative growth.
</p>
<p> The decline in South Africa's national output in the past
two years was alarming and should be seen by all as a clear
warning that time was running out for the country, said
Johannesburg Chamber of Commerce and Industry president Mike
Cato.
</p>
<p> Sapa reports that Mr. Cato said the year had not started
well in economic terms with the drought bringing serious threats
to national agricultural output.
</p>
<p> "Whilst recent surveys have indicated a slight improvement
in general confidence levels among businessmen, they have also
shown that slack capacity will have to be filled before the
levels of employment will rise," he said.
</p>
</body>
</article>
</text>